Fading Hope

The biggest problem with following a team like this year's edition of the Colorado Rockies, is that the more you watch, the less hope you have that this team has what it takes to compete for the ultimate prize, a World Series Championship, or at least a playoff spot.  The recent injuries to Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki notwithstanding, this roster does not, and has not, fired on all cylinders yet this year.  Oh, for sure, there have been flashes of hope, the rare game when a starting pitcher effectively neutralizes the opposing batting lineup, the Rockies hitters produce timely hits driving in runs, Rafael Betancourt pitches a 1-2-3 eighth inning and Huston Street comes in and wraps up an uneventful ninth inning for a save.  How many times has that happened this year?  Obviously, not nearly enough.

Tonight's 5-3 loss at Turner Field to the Atlanta Braves was just another log in the fire.  The Arizona Diamondbacks beat the Milwaukee Brewers tonight, and the San Francisco Giants are ahead of the San Diego Padres, which means that the Rockies may well be 7-1/2 games out of first and definitely 5-1/2 games behind the second-place D-Backs in the National League West Division.  Put into perspective, the Rockies with their disappointing 41-45 record, have to go 52-24 the rest of this season to get to 93 wins.  That's a .684 winning percentage.  93 wins will probably win the NL West.  Without another miraculous finish like they pulled off in 2007, this team is destined to finish below .500 and out of the post-season.  By the way, in 2009, after he took over the reins, when the Rockies started out the season 18-28, manager Jim Tracy's record after the May 29th sacking of Clint Hurdle, was 74-42, a .638 winning percentage.  Coincidentally, Hurdle's Pittsburgh Pirates are currently 45-41 and in second place, just 1-1/2 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central Division.

One statistic encapsulates the stamp of frustration that defines this team:  16 runners left on base.  Throw in the 11 strikeouts and the general lack-of-energy feel to the game, this team is dead, stick a fork in 'em.  The sad thing is, is that the pieces that Dan O'Dowd and his staff have assembled all seem to be just not quite ready-for-prime-time. 

As the end of July approaches, and therefore the trade deadline, the Rockies seem poised to be in a position to be sellers, instead of buyers.  What this means, is that teams in possible contention for late-season playoff aspirations will be poring over rosters of teams that are out of contention to try and make deals for players that could help fill holes in their lineups or pitching staffs.  Teams that are on the outside looking in, can take advantage of this opportunity (yes, being out of contention can be an opportunity) to stock up their farm system by trading veteran players (and their often higher salaries) for prospects or lesser-experienced, cheaper players with potential.  The problem I see with these Rockies, and the player-development staff, is that what we are seeing is a problem of either under-performance by players and coaches, or over-valuing player potential by O'Dowd, manager Jim Tracy and their staffs.  Or both.  Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are signed for the next 7 and 10 years, respectively, so it is vital to Rockie future success that the surrounding roster complement the superstars' skill sets to ensure ongoing effectiveness as a team, in Tracy's words, "going forward."

Jim Tracy joined this organization as a bench coach on Clint Hurdle's staff in the off-season after the 2008 season, when the Rockies finished the season in third place in the West behind the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.  He had spent many years in several organizations managing in the minor leagues.  He returned to the Major Leagues as a bench coach, first under Felipe Alou (Montreal Expos), then with the Dodgers, under Davey Johnson.  The Dodgers suffered through two difficult seasons in 1999 and 2000,  Johnson was fired and replaced by Tracy, who managed the Dodgers for 5 seasons, from 2001 through 2005, compiling a 427-383 (.527) record, winning a West Division title in 2004.  The Dodgers lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2004 playoffs, 3 games to 1.  Tracy's team suffered through a 71-91 record in 2005 and was fired on October 3 immediately after the end of the season.  On October 11, he was named as the skipper of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Pirates, as usual, stunk, so Tracy compiled a 135-189 (.417) record in two years at the helm of the Pirates.  He was fired at the end of the 2007 season.  So far with the Rockies, Tracy's regular season record is 198-166 (.544), with a 1-3 playoff record after being defeated by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2009 Disivision Series.

Have the Rockies reached a dead-end with their current roster?  That question will be answered by the end of July, maybe sooner.  Even with a healthy Tulo and a 100% CarGo, the Rockies need Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Hammel, Jhoulys Chacin, Rafael Betancourt and Huston Street to pick up their games, substantially.  They need Todd Helton to remain healthy and relevant and productive, even IF (and probably not) he gets voted into this year's All-Star Game.  We need to see major improvement in the consistency of Ty Wigginton's at-bats and defense.  It's crucial that Chris Iannetta elevate his offensive and defensive profile.  It'd be really great if newcomer Mark Ellis could ignore his lifetime American League career batting average of .265 (1,056 games over 9 seasons) and maintain his National League average of .444 (4 games).  You see where we're heading? 

Hope is fading.

(Update:  the Padres rallied to beat the Giants, 5-3.  Rox are only 6-1/2 games out!)