Thursday, June 16, 2011

Chacin Cha-Ching

The 2011 Colorado Rockies have under-achieved so far this year.  That much is not a matter for debate.  What is very much up for debate is whether the Rockies' brain trust is prepared to pull strings, push buttons and make decisions that move this franchise forward.  Past history says that this club will maintain a patient and forgiving course, trusting in the personnel and talent that the scouting and developmental evaluators have put into place throughout the organization.  Recent moves have confirmed that general manager Dan O'Dowd and director of scouting and player development Bill Geivett believe in their staff's overall assessments of talent up and down the Rockies baseball organization.  Free agent acquisitions and trades since the end of last season reveal a modest lean towards 'gambling', and a stern tendency to make 'safe' decisions.  By 'safe', I mean 'not expensive'.  Notice that I didn't say 'cheap'.

The Rockies spent a ton ($238 million) to lock up the services of Troy Tulowitzki ($158 million over ten years) and Carlos Gonzalez ($80 million over seven years).  The club also inked left handed pitcher Jorge De La Rosa to a hefty contract that could be worth up to $43 million for four years.  Closer Huston Street signed a contract in January that guarantees him three years and $22.5 million.  And so forth.  The Rockies are in the upper-middle of the salary scale of the Major Leagues.  In the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies, with their envious pitching staff, leads  with a 2011 salary level of $173 million.  Next, in order, are:  Chicago Cubs ($125m), New York Mets ($118.8m), San Francisco Giants ($118.2m), St. Louis Cardinals ($105.4m), Los Angeles Dodgers ($104.2m), then the Colorado Rockies at just over $88 million.

The average ticket price for Rockies games at Coors Field is right at $22.50 for 2011.  If the Rockies get attendance at 33,000 per game, that begets about 2.7 million for the year.  That means around $60 million in ticket sales and probably close to that amount from parking and concessions.  With advertising, sponsorship deals, television and radio contracts and Major League cooperative shared income, the Rockies will generate an anticipated $188 million this year (source: Forbes.com).  The Rockies drew close to 2.9 million last year, due to their playoff contention until late in the year.  When I see a crowd that's announced at 41,000 and look around and see lots of empty seats, like I did at the end of last season, it usually means that tickets were purchased in advance, and patrons and fans lost interest.  Season ticket holders, and fans who got caught up in the fever of the playoff chase, bought tickets that weren't used.  That is why it is so important for an organization to field a team that is both competitive and fun to watch.  Winning is more fun than losing (unless you're a diehard Cubs fan).  If the Rockies get hot, close in on the division lead, and remain competitive through the end of the year, they will exceed 33,157 paid attendance per game, which is what they are averaging through the first 35 games at Coors Field this season.  3.2 million paid this year would be terrific.

At the current rate, not even at 50% in the win column, Colorado Rockies fans may elect to stay at home and maybe watch on TV.  This is a very important time for Major League Baseball in general, and for many specific teams especially.  With the National Football League at odds and no clear picture of if or when the 2011-2012 season will be played, the National Basketball Association also on the verge of their CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) expiring, MLB has the stage to themselves right now.  Many teams are doing quite well in home attendance, and the Rockies are right in the middle, not bad, not great.  The Phillies have drawn almost 1.8 million already, not even halfway through their home slate.  They need to, their payroll demands that they succeed at the gate.  Two teams, the Phillies and the Red Sox, actually average more fans per game than their stadiums' official capacity.  Five teams average less than 20,000 per game:  Cleveland Indians (until recently, in first place in the AL Central), Kansas City Royals (not a contender, but 21-20 at home), Oakland A's (last in the AL West), Tampa Bay Rays (third in the tough AL East) and the Florida Marlins (last in the NL East).

I am meandering, but my point is, that the Rockies brass needs to hope that their "kids" can come through, in the last two-thirds of this season.  That would solve all the winning and revenue concerns.  After taking two of three from the Padres with yesterday's 6-3 win, the Rockies are 17-18 at home and 16-17 on the road, 5-1/2 games behind the San Francisco Giants, and 1-1/2 games behind the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks.  The American League Central Division leading Detroit Tigers check in tomorrow at Coors Field for a three game series that begins inter-league play.  The Tigers are managed by Jim Leyland, who managed the Rockies to a 72-90 record in 1999, and last place in the West.  It was such a sour experience for Leyland, that he stayed away from baseball for 7 years, until he returned to managerial duties with the Tigers in 2006, taking them all the way to the World Series, where they lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in 5 games.  The Rockies should have a carton of cigarettes and a bottle of scotch waiting in his office for him when he arrives for work tomorrow.

Jhoulys Chacin's eighth win yesterday (against 4 losses) and the Rockies' bats limbering up (13 hits), gave them a two-game winning streak for only the second time since May 18th.  If the Rockies do not win at least 15 out of the 23 games between now and the All-Star break, they had better look to tweaking their rosters, up and down the organization, because 50-50 mediocrity is NOT something that can retain fan interest for long.  The trade dealine is July 31, there could be a whole lot of shakin' up goin' on by then.

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